Brave New Bipolar World
There is a new bipolar order in the world, determined by the rivalry between the USA and China. The risk of a world nuclear war is low, but a limited maritime war is likely.
Jarema Piekutowski: Speaking of the recent US-China escalation, in the article "Another Long Peace", you say that there is a smaller risk of an all-out world nuclear war due to geostrategical causes. The probability of long-time peace is also low, but there is a high probability of limited maritime war in the maritime East Asia. Why only a limited war? Øystein Tunsjø: I think that the water-barrier prevents an escalation to a major war. In any war scenario, whether in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, where US and Chinese forces are coming into a crisis e.g. over Taiwan, it is possible that you can have a limited war or battle at sea. It will, of course, include...